Why it matters
Surfaces risks people are reluctant to raise, especially cultural resistance, and gives everyone permission to be candid before commitment hardens.
How to run it
- Set the scene. "It's twelve months from now. This transformation has failed. What went wrong?"
- Write independently (8 min). Each person lists reasons silently, one per note.
- Share round-robin. One reason per person per round until all are on the board.
- Vote on the top five most likely and most damaging.
- Design countermeasures — for cultural risks, ask which ritual would prevent this?
Watch out for
- Turning it into a debate about whether to proceed — the goal is to make it succeed
- Only listing external risks; push for behavioural and cultural ones
When not to use it
Once the change is already well under way — use a retrospective instead.